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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 ...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 53.3W ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 53.3 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-14 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 53.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 53.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-14 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-14 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Enhanced infrared GOES 16 imagery and a recent ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the center of circulation is still located to the south of a rather shapeless deep convective mass. Recent images show a small burst developing just to the west of the center, but the associated cloud tops are already warming. Based on the overall cloud pattern, light southerly shear and a dry, relatively stable surrounding environment continue to hamper significant development. There were no changes to the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is once again held at a possibly generous 40 kt. Josephine's relatively small window of opportunity for further strengthening is within the next 18 to 24 hours. The forecast still shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at the time and is above all of the skilled guidance. After which, strong southwesterly shear produced by a northeast to southwest oriented deep-layer mid-Atlantic trough is expected to induce gradual weakening. This inhibiting upper wind pattern is forecast to affect the cyclone through day 5. The NHC forecast through 60 hours is based on the better performing IVCN consensus which consists of the Decay SHIPS, LGEM and the hurricane models. Beyond mid-period, the forecast is basically a blend of the IVCN and the global models which now shows Josephine degenerating into a remnant low at day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt within the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high situated to the northeast of Josephine. Weakening of the western portion of the ridge should cause Josephine to turn northwestward in 3 days, followed by a turn generally northward at day 4 in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the east coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one through 5 days and is once again close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 13 the center of Josephine was located near 14.8, -52.2 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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