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Summary for Remnants of Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-20 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 14.3, -71.8 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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at4al092017
Remnants of Harvey Public Advisory Number 11
2017-08-20 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 200232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Harvey Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 71.8W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of the remnants of Harvey. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Harvey were located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.8 West. The tropical wave associated with Harvey's remnants is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion will continue for the next day or two. The remnants are expected to move westward across the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday and across the western Caribbean Sea toward Central America on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics
2017-08-19 22:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-08-19 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192034 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day, at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation still exists. The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan. However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the next 72 h. The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not warranted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-08-19 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 192033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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