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Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-19 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 14.1, -70.0 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10
2017-08-19 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 192033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be required for portions of these areas tonight. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-08-19 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 192033 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-19 16:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:56:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:56:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-19 16:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 191449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 Harvey has become less organized in visible imagery since this time yesterday, with the convective pattern becoming elongated and the circulation looking less well defined. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not close the circulation at 850 mb, but was able to close the circulation at 1000 ft. The plane has not yet reported tropical-storm-force winds, but the northwestern quadrant was not well sampled. Thus, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt. The initial motion is now 275/19. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36-48 hours. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and based on this the new forecast track follows the guidance with only minor changes from the previous track. The ongoing moderate vertical shear should continue for another 12-24 h or so, and combined with the current lack of organization should allow at best only slow strengthening. After that, the upper-level winds are expected to become favorable for strengthening as the system moves over the deep warm waters of the western Caribbean. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for a peak intensity of 60 kt just before the system reaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula. Harvey should weaken as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula between 72-96 h, followed by some re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche. It should be noted that any additional loss of organization in the next 12-24 h would result in the cyclone degenerating into an easterly wave. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.9N 68.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 14.4N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 14.9N 78.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 15.7N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.5N 88.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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