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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-09-16 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 974 WTNT25 KNHC 162032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.2N 30.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.6N 28.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.4N 27.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.2N 27.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.4N 30.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 32.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-16 16:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:43:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:43:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-16 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 947 WTNT45 KNHC 161441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment. The cloud pattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deep convection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and another patch of weakening convection well removed from the center in the northeast quadrant. Visible satellite images and a partial ASCAT pass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also become increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest. Based on the system's appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropical depression. The depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue through tonight. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is moves in the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overall change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Joyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear. Even though SSTs are relatively warm, the ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. Although the NHC forecast shows Joyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days, it is very possible that the system could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low at any time during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 34.7N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.7, -34.3 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 16
2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 275 WTNT35 KNHC 161441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 34.3W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 34.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. After that time, the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the southeast and then the southwest away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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