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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 308 FONT15 KNHC 161441 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-09-16 16:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 314 WTNT25 KNHC 161440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-16 11:04:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 09:04:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 09:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-16 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 075 WTNT45 KNHC 160844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 What's left of the Joyce's associated deep convection is now displaced about 80 miles to the north-northeast of the elongated surface circulation. There still may be some 35 kt winds in a small area of deep convection where the coldest cloud tops (-65C) are observed, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The surrounding environment is forecast to remains quite unfavorable during the next 24 hours, although the warm 27C oceanic temperatures could slightly counteract the negative effects of the harsh vertical shear pattern. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures, a more stable thermodynamic air mass, along with the stiff shear, is forecast to induce gradual weakening and, ultimately, dissipation in 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 075/15 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the same mid-tropospheric steering flow as Tropical Storm Helene, and Joyce should move east-northeastward to eastward today. Through day 3, Joyce should turn southeastward to south-southwestward around the eastern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its west as a vertically shallow system. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is based on the better-performing consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 34.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 34.5N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 34.6N 30.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 34.1N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 30.7N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-16 10:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM..... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.0, -36.1 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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