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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 15
2018-09-16 10:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 826 WTNT35 KNHC 160844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM..... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 36.1W ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 36.1 West. Joyce is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in forward speed. After that time, the cyclone should turn toward the east-southeast away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-09-16 10:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 792 FONT15 KNHC 160844 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-09-16 10:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 396 WTNT25 KNHC 160843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 36.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 36.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.5N 33.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.6N 30.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.1N 27.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.7N 28.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 36.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-16 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 02:35:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 02:35:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-09-16 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 705 WTNT45 KNHC 160233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 Joyce is a highly sheared cyclone with the low-level center well separated from the convection. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity has been generously set at 35 kt. The shear is expected to remain belligerently high and the ocean along the forecast track is cooler. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for additional weakening, and then dissipation beyond 3 days if not sooner. Joyce continues to move eastward at about 15 kt embedded within the fast mid-latitude flow. The system should decrease its forward speed as it weakens and become a shallow cyclone. It should then turn east-southeast and even southward steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 33.4N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 34.5N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.0N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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