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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-16 04:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING..... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Joyce was located near 33.4, -38.0 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-16 04:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 464 WTNT35 KNHC 160233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING..... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 38.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 38.0 West. Joyce is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. After that time, the cyclone should turn east-southeast away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-09-16 04:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 195 WTNT25 KNHC 160232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 38.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 38.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 29.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.0N 27.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 38.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-15 22:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:33:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:33:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-15 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 165 WTNT45 KNHC 152031 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 The circulation of Joyce is elongated this afternoon, with the center partially exposed. It has been interesting to watch deep convection firing in the northeastern quadrant, kicking off new small swirls that rotate around the mean circulation. A blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB supports keeping the wind speed 40 kt on this advisory. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. The environment is predicted to be nearly steady-state around Joyce through Sunday, with strong shear being offset by waters near 27C. Thereafter, as the hostile shear continues, the mid-level air should become drier near the center, and SSTs cool off below 26C. These conditions should cause Joyce to slowly weaken early next week, and dissipate in 3 days or so. This forecast is basically the same as the previous one, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility the cyclone could open up into a trough before that time. Joyce continues to accelerate, now moving east-northeastward at about 15 kt. The storm remains embedded within the same trough as Tropical Storm Helene, and Joyce should move east-northeastward during the next day or so. Beyond that time, as Joyce becomes a shallow cyclone, it is forecast to turn southeastward due to low-level flow around the eastern side of a building ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. The track forecast is simply an update to the previous one, and continues to be on the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 33.1N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 34.1N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 34.8N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 34.8N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 34.0N 28.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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