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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-15 10:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 08:45:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 08:45:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-15 10:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 082 WTNT45 KNHC 150843 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 There has not much change with Joyce overnight. The tropical storm is producing a fair amount of deep convection to the north and west of the center, but there are some dry slots on the east side. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt. Joyce is currently just east of an upper-level trough and the flow aloft is quite diffluent near the cyclone. This upper-level pattern could allow Joyce to strengthen slightly today. However, by tonight, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to increase over the cyclone. This increase in shear combined with decreasing mid-level humidities and cooling SSTs should lead to a steady weakening trend after 12 hours. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate in 3 to 4 days, but some of the models suggest that this could occur sooner. The tropical storm is moving eastward at 7 kt. Joyce is embedded in the same trough as Helene and it should follow that tropical cyclone east-northeastward to northeastward at increasing forward speeds during the next day or two. Beyond that time, if there is anything left of Joyce, the system will likely turn back to the east or east-southeast as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.9N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 32.7N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 33.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 34.6N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.7N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 33.0N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-09-15 10:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 904 FONT15 KNHC 150843 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-15 10:43:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Joyce was located near 31.9, -42.2 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 11
2018-09-15 10:43:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 888 WTNT35 KNHC 150843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 42.2W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 42.2 West. Joyce is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. A turn back to the east or east-southeast is forecast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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