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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-14 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Joyce was located near 31.4, -44.1 with movement SE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 9
2018-09-14 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 319 WTNT35 KNHC 142041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...JOYCE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 44.1W ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 44.1 West. Joyce is moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected tonight, and a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. Joyce is then forecast to weaken to a depression by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-09-14 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 166 WTNT25 KNHC 142040 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 44.1W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 44.1W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.6N 43.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.6N 41.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.0N 35.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.5N 28.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-14 16:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:48:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 15:40:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-14 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 716 WTNT45 KNHC 141442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Joyce has again changed little in organization since the last advisory, with several small bands of convection to the east and northeast of the partly exposed center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates from TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The initial motion is now 180/7. Joyce is currently being steered by the larger and stronger Helene to its east, and a southward to southeastward motion is expected for the next 12 h or so. As Helene passes to the east-northeast of Joyce, Joyce should turn eastward and northeastward with a faster forward speed due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough from the west. The global models have again trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to be faster and a little farther to the east. There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the cyclone within the next day or two, which should prevent Joyce from strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for little change in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the shear increases further. The global models mostly dissipate Joyce by day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and become post-tropical before that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.6N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 31.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 32.0N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 33.2N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 34.6N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 36.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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