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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-09-15 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 368 FONT15 KNHC 150239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-09-15 04:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 287 WTNT25 KNHC 150239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 43.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 43.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 42.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.2N 39.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.4N 37.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.1N 33.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 28.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-14 22:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 20:46:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 20:46:55 GMT
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joyce
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-14 22:42:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 959 WTNT45 KNHC 142042 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Convection associated with Joyce has increased since the last advisory, with a vigorous band now near the center in the northern semicircle. In response, satellite intensity estimates have edged upward, and the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt as a blend between the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cyclone now has good cirrus outflow in the northern semicircle as an upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery passes south of the cyclone. The storm is starting its forecast turn toward the east and the initial motion is now 125/5. As Tropical Storm Helene to the east-northeast of Joyce moves away, Joyce is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 h, followed by an eastward turn after 48 h. The global models continue to trend faster, and after 48 h there has been a southward shift compared to the previous guidance. Therefore, the new forecast track will be notably faster than the previous track and the 72 h point will be shifted southward. The new track is still a little to the north of the various consensus models. Southwesterly upper-level winds are still forecast to increase over the cyclone during the next day or two, and the forecast track takes Joyce over decreasing sea surface temperatures. This combination should lead to a weakening trend, especially after 24 h. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward a little from the previous one based on the initial intensity, but it still calls for Joyce to dissipate by 96 h in agreement with most of the global models. It is possible that Joyce could strengthen a little more during the first 12 h while the upper-level low helps keep the stronger shear away from the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 31.4N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 31.6N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 32.6N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 33.9N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 35.0N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 35.5N 28.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-09-14 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 912 FONT15 KNHC 142041 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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