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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

2018-09-15 22:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOYCE MOVING FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Joyce was located near 33.1, -39.6 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 13

2018-09-15 22:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 955 WTNT35 KNHC 152031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 39.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 39.6 West. Joyce is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. The storm should turn back to the east on Monday and to the southeast on Tuesday, away from the Azores Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2018-09-15 22:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 956 FONT15 KNHC 152031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 13

2018-09-15 22:30:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 687 WTNT25 KNHC 152030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 39.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 39.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.1N 37.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 33.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.8N 30.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 28.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 39.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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