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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 53
2018-10-12 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121455 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... . SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today. Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of Cortez during the next several and then move over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread northeastward this morning. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 53
2018-10-12 16:55:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121455 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 111.9W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 111.9W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-12 13:39:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 11:39:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 10:03:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-12 13:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST... As of 6:00 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 the center of Sergio was located near 26.8, -112.8 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 52A
2018-10-12 13:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121138 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 52A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 600 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 112.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means in this case that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will continue to cross the central portion of the Baja California peninsula this morning, and then move over mainland northwestern Mexico later tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread northeastward this morning. Gusty winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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