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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 49
2018-10-11 16:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A HURRY... HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 118.7W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch south of Mulege. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This track with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2018-10-11 16:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P ABREOJOS 34 1 68(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) P ABREOJOS 50 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P ABREOJOS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 5( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 37 55(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 25N 115W 50 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 25N 115W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 49
2018-10-11 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111438 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 270SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 119.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-11 13:44:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 11:44:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 09:40:24 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-11 13:44:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Sergio was located near 21.5, -119.3 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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