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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-12 01:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 23:34:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 21:40:17 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-12 01:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Sergio was located near 24.1, -116.0 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 50A
2018-10-12 01:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112333 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 50A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...SERGIO APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 116.0W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 116.0 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this track is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin overnight, but Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-11 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 20:39:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 20:39:03 GMT
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sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 50
2018-10-11 22:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The cloud pattern of Sergio consists of a large and vigorous swirl of low clouds with a few patches of deep convection within a band in the northern semicircle. In fact, the cloud pattern on satellite resembles a cyclone that has begun to acquire extratropical characteristics. Convection has decreased, and Dvorak numbers now support a lower initial intensity of 50 kt. Sergio's circulation is already over cooler waters and the shear is increasing, so weakening should continue from now on. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while interacts with the high terrain and then reach the state of Sonora as a tropical depression followed by dissipation. Sergio has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the northeast at about 20 kt. Since the steering currents are not expected to change, the general motion should continue until dissipation in about 36 hours os so. Track models continue to be in excellent agreement, and unanimously bring the core of Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in a little more than 12 hours and so does the official forecast. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 23.5N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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