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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 51
2018-10-12 04:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120250 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Deep convection has been on the wane with Sergio during the past several hours with a relatively small patch remaining in the northern semicircle. Still, the circulation of Sergio is fairly large and vigorous and will take some time to spin down. The initial wind speed is held at 50 kt, on the high side of the satellite estimates since we haven't had ASCAT data in quite some time. Weakening should commence overnight due to cool waters and increasing shear. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while it interacts with the high terrain, then reaching the state of Sonora as a tropical depression and dissipating soon thereafter. Sergio continues moving northeastward at 20 kt. Models are very tightly clustered on this track and speed, staying virtually unchanged until dissipation by 36 hours or so. Note that the 36-hour point is merely a place holder for the remnants of the cyclone. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 24.7N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2018-10-12 04:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120250 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) P ABREOJOS 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HERMOSILLO 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HERMOSILLO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BAHIA KINO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 5 35(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GUAYMAS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-12 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAINBANDS FROM SERGIO NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Sergio was located near 24.7, -115.4 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 51
2018-10-12 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120249 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 51
2018-10-12 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120249 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...RAINBANDS FROM SERGIO NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 115.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 115.4 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this track is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin overnight, but Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm, but weaken to a tropical depression before reaching Sonora. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from this weekend into Monday. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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