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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-12 12:03:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 10:03:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 10:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 52
2018-10-12 10:55:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120855 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Sergio's cloud shield is well separated from the poorly organized surface circulation and is confined to the northwest quadrant. Subjective satellite intensity estimates yield a reduction in the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Weakening should continue this morning due to cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and belligerent southwesterly shear, but Sergio is still expected to be a tropical storm as it make landfall in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. Afterward, Sergio should quickly become a depression and eventually dissipate as it traverses the rugged terrain of the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/21 kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough situated just west of the California coast. This synoptic steering pattern should steer Sergio toward the northeast at an accelerated rate of speed. A 36 hour post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent the inland motion of Sergio. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the various multi-model consensus aids, and is basically an update of the previous package. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 26.1N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2018-10-12 10:55:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120855 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) LORETO 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HERMOSILLO 34 19 16(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BAHIA KINO 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GUAYMAS 34 48 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GUAYMAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-12 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 the center of Sergio was located near 26.1, -113.8 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 52
2018-10-12 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120854 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 113.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 113.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will make landfall in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur later this morning and then move over mainland northwestern Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should continue today, but Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over the the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through Friday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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