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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 13
2014-09-14 16:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 ...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 ATLANTIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 50.7W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-09-14 16:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141449 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 50.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 50.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.8N 52.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.1N 54.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 54.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 39.4N 47.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.7N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 50.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-09-14 10:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140857 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 Edouard continues to gradually intensify, as a tightly curved band has wrapped around the cyclone's center. Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB are a 4.0, or 65 kt, while the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is substantially lower. The current intensity of Edouard is assessed as a high-end tropical storm at 60 kt, but the system may already be a hurricane given the uncertainties. The vertical shear - primarily induced by a large tropical upper tropospheric trough to its west-southwest - has begun to relax, now that Edouard has moved poleward of the trough axis. Vertical shear predicted by the global models should further weaken to less than 10 kt from 24 through 72 hours. This along with quite warm 29C waters is likely to lead to continued intensification through three days. The new NHC forecast peaks Edouard's intensity at 95 kt (slightly higher than that in the previous advisory), based upon a blend of the SHIPS statistical model and HWRF dynamical model. While the vertical shear picks up significantly between days 3 and 4 as Edouard recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which would allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 4. By day 5, cold waters and very strong vertical shear are anticipated to cause substantial weakening. Both the FSU Cyclone Phase Space analysis and the SHIPS storm type indicate Edouard will transition to an extratropical cyclone by day 5. The improved organization of the deep convection as seen in the infrared imagery as well as a couple of microwave passes allow for a fairly confident assessment of the current position. Edouard is moving toward the northwest at about 12 kt, primarily due to the steering induced by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. Edouard will round the western periphery of the ridge and recurve toward the northeast about 3 days. The NHC track prediction is based upon the tightly clustered multi-model TVCA track ensemble and is slightly west of that shown in the previous advisory through 72 hours and slightly east thereafter. The tropical-storm-force wind radii of Edouard was based upon an earlier ASCAT pass, which indicated a substantially larger size than that previously analyzed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 24.0N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 27.5N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 28.9N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 33.0N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 42.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-14 10:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD NEARLY A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 14 the center of EDOUARD was located near 24.0, -49.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 12
2014-09-14 10:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140854 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 ...EDOUARD NEARLY A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 49.7W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. EDOUARD SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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