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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-09-14 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142031 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 52.1W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 52.1W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.3N 56.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.2N 56.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 40.1N 45.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 41.0N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 52.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-14 17:12:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2014 14:57:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2014 15:06:48 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-09-14 16:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141451 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 Edouard's inner core convective pattern has continued to improve since the previous advisory, with a ring of deep convection surrounding a brief appearance of a 20 nmi diameter eye around 1200 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-covered with cirrus from a strong convective burst in the western eyewall. A 0924 UTC Windsat microwave overpass revealed good low-level structure and a 15-20 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values have been T4.4/75 kt for the past few hours. However, due to the eye recently becoming cloud-filled, the initial intensity is only being increased to 70 kt, which still makes Edouard the fourth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season. Edouard has made slight wobble to the right, possibly due to the formation of the eye, but a 12-hour-average yields a motion of about 305/14 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge along 30N-32N latitude is expected to steer the hurricane northwestward today, followed by a turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the cyclone is expected to accelerate to the northeast ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that is forecast to move off of the U.S. east coast. By Days 4 and 5, Edouard is expected to get caught up into the strong mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward the east-northeast. The NHC model guidance is in excellent on this developing steering pattern, and the official forecast closely follows the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCA. Given the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, a very favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by all of the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of the cyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard should not continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricane over the next 2 days or so. The only inhibiting factor could be the dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone, and that is the only reason why rapid intensification is not being forecast at this time. By Day 4 and beyond, Edouard will be moving over sub-24C SSTs and encountering vertical wind shear greater than 25 kt, which is expected to induce significant weakening. By Day 5, Edouard is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone as the system becomes embedded within the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast and the SHIPS model, except that the timing of the peak intensity has been moved forward by 24 hours, in order to coincide with the time that Edouard will be over the warmest water and in the lowest shear conditions. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is currently conducting a research mission into Edouard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 24.7N 50.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 25.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 27.1N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 34.5N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 39.4N 47.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 41.7N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-09-14 16:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 141449 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-14 16:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 ATLANTIC SEASON... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 14 the center of EDOUARD was located near 24.7, -50.7 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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