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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 33
2014-09-19 16:59:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191458 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Edouard is weakening rapidly. Strong northwesterly shear has caused the low- and mid-level centers of the cyclone to decouple during the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any deep convection for some time, and unless it returns, Edouard will be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today. Using a blend of Dvorak CI and Final T numbers, the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 40 kt. A 1214 UTC ASCAT pass showed believable 33-kt wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant, suggesting that somewhat higher winds are possible elsewhere in the southern half of the circulation. Edouard is expected to spin down further during the next couple of days due to a continuation of strong northwesterly shear and its passage over cold water. Extratropical transition is indicated by the global models in about 48 hours. The intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and now shows remnant low status sooner. Dissipation is expected in about 3 days. Edouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6-12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 110/03. The cyclone is expected to move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so as it rounds the northern side of a low-level ridge to the south. A turn toward the southeast and south is shown after that time as the extratropical cyclone dives into the flow on the west side of a low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only shifted a bit to the left but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 39.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 39.6N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 39.5N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 21/0000Z 38.9N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 37.3N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman
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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-19 16:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.5, -38.3 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 33
2014-09-19 16:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 ...EDOUARD WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 38.3W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2014-09-19 16:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 191455 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 33
2014-09-19 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191455 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 38.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 38.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 38.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.5N 35.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.9N 32.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.3N 30.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 38.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN
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