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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

2014-09-18 22:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EDOUARD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 18 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.9, -41.3 with movement E at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 30

2014-09-18 22:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 182036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 ...EDOUARD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 41.3W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 30

2014-09-18 22:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 182035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 41.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 120SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 41.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N 39.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.8N 37.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N 35.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.8N 33.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 29

2014-09-18 16:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181436 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around 1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion, respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory. The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 39.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1200Z 37.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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