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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-18 05:10:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 02:35:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 03:05:45 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-09-18 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180234 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over cool waters. Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in the inner-core region has increased a little during the past few hours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Although the hurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the expected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Post-tropical transition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is forecast to be over waters around 23 C. The hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong mid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial motion estimated to be 060/26. A turn to the east and then southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow between a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low to its northeast. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 38.7N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 40.2N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 40.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0000Z 39.4N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0000Z 37.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2014-09-18 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 180234 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-18 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of EDOUARD was located near 38.7, -48.2 with movement ENE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 27
2014-09-18 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 ...EDOUARD CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 48.2W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H. A TURN TO THE EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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