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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 27
2014-09-18 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180233 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 48.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 150SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 310SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 48.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.2N 40.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 40.1N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.4N 32.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.0N 29.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-17 23:12:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 20:36:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 21:06:45 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-09-17 22:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172035 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of 71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the higher satellite classifications. A combination of cooling waters and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening trend throughout the 120-hour period. Post-tropical transition is indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of the global models. Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23. A gradual turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies. Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic. Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle, apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from the mid-level northerly flow. Consequently, the latest forecast is shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably won't be much of Edouard by that point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 37.8N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 39.4N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 40.4N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 40.2N 39.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 40.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 20/1800Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1800Z 38.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-17 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of EDOUARD was located near 37.8, -51.2 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 26
2014-09-17 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 ...EDOUARD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 51.2W ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED BY LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA BEGINNING TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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