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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 31
2014-09-19 04:35:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 ...EDOUARD STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 39.2W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 31
2014-09-19 04:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 39.2W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 180SE 180SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 39.2W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 40.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 130SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.9N 36.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 31.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-18 23:10:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 20:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 21:05:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2014-09-18 22:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 182036 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 12(16) 12(28) 1(29) X(29) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-09-18 22:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 182036 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 Over the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have started to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east of the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based mainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the northern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located along 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Edouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter increasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The combination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the rapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts with and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.9N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 39.9N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 39.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 20/1800Z 39.8N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1800Z 37.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 32.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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