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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-19 11:10:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 08:52:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 09:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 32
2014-09-19 10:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190852 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Satellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is now exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid- level circulation decoupled well to the southeast. With the absence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength quickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little higher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration of the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data. Edouard is unlikely to redevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with strong shear. Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will likely become post-tropical in about 12 hours. Extratropical transition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the global models are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing frontal features by that time. Edouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours, with initial motion estimate of 090/6 kt. A continued eastward motion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous NHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which results in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 39.8N 38.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z 34.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2014-09-19 10:52:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 190851 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 16(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-19 10:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.8, -38.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 32
2014-09-19 10:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190851 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 ...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.8N 38.5W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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