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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-09-18 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180849 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small, solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep convection. The infrared satellite presentation has not changed appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its convective structure. However, the SHIPS guidance shows the instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over 30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a faster weakening trend later today. The hostile conditions should cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours, and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows the ICON intensity consensus. The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has an initial motion of 065/24 kt. Edouard is moving around the northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward around this feature during the next 3 days. Most of the track models are in good agreement on this scenario. The two main outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after 12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race northeastward ahead of a cold front. The updated NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 39.6N 45.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 40.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 39.9N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2014-09-18 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 180849 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 14(18) 4(22) X(22) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-18 10:49:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 18 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.6, -45.3 with movement ENE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 28
2014-09-18 10:49:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 ...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 45.3W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H...BUT A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. AN EVEN SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 28
2014-09-18 10:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180848 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 45.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 110SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 200SE 180SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 350SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 45.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.1N 41.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 170SE 160SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N 38.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 110SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.0N 30.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 45.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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