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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 16:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241440 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...LAURA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER JAMAICA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 80.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, and Granma. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 80.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continued through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening forecast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through today: Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern and central Cuba, and the Bahamas. These swells are expected to spread across western Cuba and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 16:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241439 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. NORTHWEST GULF COAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 80.6W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 80.6W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 80.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 13:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA.... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 20.9, -79.7 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-24 13:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 11:55:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 09:24:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-08-24 13:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241155 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA.... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 79.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 79.7 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Jamaica and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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