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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-24 11:12:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 09:12:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 09:24:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-24 10:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240857 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Satellite data indicate that Laura has moved back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. Modest northerly vertical wind shear has kept the bulk of the deep convection displaced into the southern semicircle of Laura's circulation. Earlier ASCAT-B/-C scatterometer passes around 0210Z-0250Z revealed a small circulation just offshore southeastern Cuba. However, this feature is considered to be a leeside vortex, possibly having developed in response to the long-fetch southerly low-level flow passing over Jamaica, and not the primary low-level center associated with Laura. The initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt based on 43-46 kt wind vectors located just offshore southeastern Cuba that were present in the aforementioned ASCAT data, and allowing for some undersampling by the scatterometer instrument. The initial motion estimate is 290/18 kt. The deep-layer Bermuda-Azores ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by all of the models to build and expand westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the new few days. This dominant steering flow pattern is expected to keep Laura moving west-northwestward just offshore the southern coast of Cuba today, followed by the cyclone emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. By late Tuesday and early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough located over the south-central U.S. is forecast to pinch off and dig southwestward and merge with the remnants of Tropical Storm Marco over the western Gulf of Mexico, eroding the western extent of the ridge in the process. This is expected to cause Laura to slow down and gradually turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast by late Wednesday and early Thursday. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is similar to but slightly left or south of the previous advisory track to account for the expected northerly to northeasterly wind shear keeping the convection and low-level center displaced to the south for the next 24 hours or so. On the forecast track, Laura is expected to remain just offshore the southern Cuba today, move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning, and approach the U..S northwest Gulf coast area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Since Laura's center is expected to remain over water just south of Cuba, there is the possibility that some slight strengthening could occur today or tonight before the cyclone reaches the Gulf of Mexico in 24 hours. After that, Laura will be moving over the very warm and deep waters of Gulf Stream and Loop Current located over the southeastern Gulf, which could trigger a brief period of rapid intensification. The GFS and ECMWF models, along with the statistical and corrected-consensus models, only strengthen the cyclone to a peak intensity around 75 kt. In contrast, the HRWF and HMON models bring Laura to major hurricane strength by 60 hours. Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near 31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36 hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today. 2. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 20.8N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 21.7N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 24.5N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 35.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/0600Z 37.6N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 10:54:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY.... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 20.8, -78.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 10:54:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240854 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY.... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 78.9W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the middle and lower Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to Key West. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 78.9 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Jamaica and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the Florida middle and Lower Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and continuing into tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 07:50:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA MOVING BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 20.5, -78.0 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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