je.st
news
Tag: number
Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 18:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181634 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 The small low pressure area that has been rotating around a larger extratropical low in the far northeastern Atlantic has become better organized this morning. Moderate-to-deep convection has persisted near the center since last night, scatterometer data shows a closed 40-kt low, and radar images from Portugal show a definite organized convective pattern. While the system is still in the cyclonic envelope of the large extratropical low and likely neutral- or cold-core, it has developed enough tropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt in accordance with the scatterometer data, assuming some undersampling for this small system. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall in Portugal during the next couple of hours. Global models show the small low moving northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. The track and intensity forecasts are consistent with the consensus guidance. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1630Z 39.9N 9.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 41.5N 7.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 44.2N 4.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
alpha
storm
Subtropical Storm Alpha Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 18:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181633 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF PORTUGAL... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED BUT BRING WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL... SUMMARY OF 430 PM GMT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 9.3W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF LISBON PORTUGAL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 430 PM GMT (1630 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alpha was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 9.3 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day or so before dissipation. Alpha should move across the coast of west-central Portugal during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening over land through the weekend. Alpha is a small storm. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches (75 mm) over the northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain through Saturday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
alpha
storm
Subtropical Storm Alpha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-18 18:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 181633 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 1630Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 9.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 18:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 181632 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.3W AT 18/1630Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.3W AT 18/1630Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 10.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 7.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 44.2N 4.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 9.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
alpha
storm
advisory
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-09-18 16:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181450 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 There was little change to the structure of Teddy since early this morning up until the past hour or so, when the eye began to fill in slightly while the cloud tops over the southern portion of the circulation warmed a bit. However, new convection with very cold cloud tops near -80 degrees C have developed recently over the northwestern quadrant, so the cyclone could just be undergoing a temporary intensity fluctuation that typically occurs in powerful hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 116 kt, and the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt for this advisory. There will be staggered NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft investigating Teddy starting this morning and continuing into the late afternoon, so they will soon be able to provide updated details on the latest structure, size, and intensity of the hurricane. The major hurricane continues to move northwestward, now at 10 kt. Teddy is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in 4 to 5 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track. Teddy will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so while it remains in favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. By late this weekend, the hurricane is forecast to traverse over cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed before the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA through 36 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance thereafter. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, there is a risk strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda, and watches may be issued later today or tonight. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 22.1N 56.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [850] [851] [852] [853] [854] [855] [856] [857] [858] [859] [860] [861] [862] [863] [864] [865] [866] [867] [868] [869] next »