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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 182056 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 27(52) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 15(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 17(55) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 6(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 30(57) 1(58) X(58) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 57.0W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 57.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected through Saturday, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 951 mb (28.08 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the northeastern coast of South America, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182056 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. 34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 57.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-18 22:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182055 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Alpha Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 Radar data from Portugal indicated that Alpha made landfall at about 1830 UTC with a fairly impressive spiral band signature. It is estimated that the winds were 45 kt at landfall, and a sustained 10-minute wind of 39 kt was recorded at Sao Pedro de Noel. The minimum central pressure is analyzed at 996 mb at landfall due to a 999 mb value at Monte Real with a 31-kt sustained wind. Since these data were recorded, the radar presentation has deteriorated, and satellite imagery suggests the small cyclone could be de-coupling from its mid-level center. The winds are assumed to have come down, with a current estimate of 40 kt. The small cyclone should continue to move northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 12-24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. No significant changes are required to the forecast for track or intensity. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 40.4N 8.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0600Z 42.1N 6.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt. Based on this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system is now a tropical storm, satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear. Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. After that time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an already present low-level ridge. This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast. Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the northeast. One change in the track guidance since the previous forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5. The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta. However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment that would hamper strengthening. The intensity guidance for the most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts a peak intensity near 65 kt. The new intensity forecast is again unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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