je.st
news
Tag: number
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-19 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 190235 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 6.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-19 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 6.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 hours or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and Spain before dissipating later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce storm totals of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches over the northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain before rain tapers off later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
alpha
advisory
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-19 04:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190235 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 7.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 6.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
alpha
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 26A
2020-09-19 01:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182345 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CHURNING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 57.0W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 57.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected through Saturday, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.08 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182056 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Teddy since this morning. The highest flight level wind measured by the aircraft was 119 kt at 750 mb, which reduces to around 101 kt at the surface. The latest central measured by the aircraft is up 4 mb from the previous advisory, indicating only some slight weakening. Earlier microwave images indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle had been taking place and some drier air had intruded into the southern portion of the circulation, leaving a partial break in the eyewall. This may explain the reason why the aircraft have not been finding winds as strong as they did previously, and in fact found a double wind maxima in the northern portion of the circulation. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in intense tropical cyclones, and oftentimes the systems recover within 12-24 h as long as the environmental conditions support it. Over the past hour or so, the ring of deep convection has appeared less broken and is beginning to expand in size, which could be an indication that the hurricane is recovering from the eyewall replacement. Based on the possibility of some undersampling by the aircraft, the increase of only 4 mb in central pressure, and the latest convective trends, the initial intensity is being lowered only slightly to 110 kt. Teddy continues its long trek northwestward, now at 12 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in about 4 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track. The environment around Teddy will be conducive for maintaining an intense hurricane for the next 24 h or so, as the ocean temperatures will remain warm with low vertical wind shear and a fairly moist atmosphere. After 24 h, the hurricane is forecast to cross cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a slow weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed around day 4 of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above HCCA and IVCN through 24 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS intensity guidance thereafter. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 23.1N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [846] [847] [848] [849] [850] [851] [852] [853] [854] [855] [856] [857] [858] [859] [860] [861] [862] [863] [864] [865] next »