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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 191450 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 11(37) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 12(44) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 9(45) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 2(47) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) 4(56) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 34(64) 1(65) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 1(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 34(50) X(50) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-19 16:50:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 191449 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-19 16:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 38.1W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 38.1W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.2N 40.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.2N 43.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.9N 45.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-09-19 13:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191152 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BETA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 92.4W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 92.4 West. Beta is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin late today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast late Sunday. RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of significant rainfall and flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts from Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 28A
2020-09-19 13:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191141 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 58.5W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 58.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is likely on Sunday, followed by a continued northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin on Sunday, but the wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially at the same time. Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda and beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. These conditions may linger through most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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