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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-09-19 10:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190849 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 300SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 61.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.6N 61.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 170SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.2N 61.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 250SE 250SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 58.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-09-19 10:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 190849 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 28(47) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 31(54) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 27(54) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 10(49) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 18(61) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 46(60) 6(66) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 5(32) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 3(49) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 20(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-19 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-19 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 36.9W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 36.9 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible over the weekend. A general weakening trend should begin by late Sunday and Wilfred is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-19 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 190831 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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