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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-19 04:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 241 WTNT43 KNHC 190246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Wilfred's surface circulation has lost quite a bit of definition during the last several hours, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the center. Additionally, deep convection has become less organized and the cloud tops just to the east of the estimated center position have warmed considerably. The initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The GFS and ECMWF global model soundings indicate 30-35 kt of northeasterly shear at about 300 mb, and it's apparently undercutting the much lighter, diffluent southeasterly flow above. Statistical-dynamical guidance, however, still show an outside chance of some strengthening Saturday, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Afterward, a combination of Teddy's massive outflow and increasing northwesterly shear produced by an mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone, should induce slow weakening on Sunday and this trend should continue through the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, and the cyclone is being steered by a low to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north. A few of the global models are hinting at a slow turn toward the north-northwest prior to dissipation as the steering pattern becomes very meridional with developing high amplitude high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, and Hurricane Teddy well to the northwest creating a large weakness over the western Atlantic. For now, the NHC forecast shows some reduction in forward speed at day 3, before dissipation, and lies close to the consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 12.8N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-19 04:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190245 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED WILFRED STILL A STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 36.0W ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.0 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Saturday before weakening likely begins by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-19 04:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 190245 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-19 04:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190245 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 36.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-19 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190236 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 METEOSAT imagery, IPMA radar data, and surface observations indicate that Alpha has degenerated to a post-tropical remnant low just a few miles to the southeast of Viseu, Portugal. Therefore, this the last NHC advisory. Surface wind data support an initial intensity of 25 kt. The rapidly deteriorating small remnant low is expected to move generally toward the northeast at about 14 kt for the next 6 to 12 hours before dissipating over northern Spain by Saturday night. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory and lies between the tightly clustered deterministic guidance. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 40.9N 6.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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