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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-09-18 10:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180835 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Teddy remains a powerful category 4 hurricane with a well-defined eye and intense eyewall. There have been occasional dry slots that have eroded some of the convection in the eyewall and rain bands, but these seem to be transient. The satellite intensity estimates currently range from 90 kt to 128 kt, and based on a blend of that data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. Teddy is expected to continue moving northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high pressure system. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves closer to the system. However, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left early next week and approach Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction. The major hurricane will likely maintain its intensity, or fluctuate in strength, during the next day or so while it remains in generally favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. However, the intensity models all show a slow weakening trend after that likely due to Teddy tracking over the cool SST wake left behind from Paulette and an increase in shear by early next week. Teddy is now forecast to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period based on the global model guidance. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the LGEM dynamical-statistical model. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are around 40 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.6N 55.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 24
2020-09-18 10:35:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...TEDDY REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 55.4W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 55.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-09-18 10:35:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 180835 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 40(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 43(52) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 49(55) 9(64) X(64) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 8(35) X(35) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-18 10:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180834 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 55.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sally Public Advisory Number 28
2020-09-18 04:49:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020
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