je.st
news
Tag: number
Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 25
2020-09-18 16:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 181439 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...POWERFUL TEDDY CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 56.1W ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. Watches may be required for Bermuda later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-09-18 16:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181439 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 16:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005. Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 11.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-18 16:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 181433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 559 WTNT33 KNHC 181433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...WILFRED FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...GET OUT THE GREEK ALPHABET FOR THE REST OF 2020... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 32.4W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 32.4 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and weakening should start this weekend and continue into next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [852] [853] [854] [855] [856] [857] [858] [859] [860] [861] [862] [863] [864] [865] [866] [867] [868] [869] [870] [871] next »