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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170831 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 85.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 85.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N 84.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.0N 81.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.1N 78.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 85.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SALLY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Sally Public Advisory Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sally Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 85.7W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama this morning, over central Georgia this afternoon and evening, and move over South Carolina late tonight into Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low by tonight or Friday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally moves across the Southeast U.S. through Friday: Central Georgia: Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts, on top of 3 to 6 inches which has already fallen. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Central to upstate South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Western to central North Carolina into south-central and southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is likely. STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede through the day today. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur early this morning across southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas today and tonight. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Sally. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 51.5W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 51.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170243 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy has been a perplexing hurricane thus far. The infrared satellite presentation appears rather impressive, with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Despite the presentation, however, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and objective estimates range between 70-75 kt. Teddy's initial intensity is therefore set just above these estimates at 80 kt. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that Teddy's center is a little farther to the southwest than previously estimated. However, the long-term motion remains toward the northwest (315/11 kt). The track forecast remains straightforward the the next 3 days, with the guidance in good agreement that a mid-tropospheric high over the central Atlantic will drive the hurricane northwestward toward the western Atlantic. There is a little more spread among the track models on days 4 and 5, related to timing differences on exactly where and how fast Teddy begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough coming from the northeastern United States. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward during the first 3 days to account for the initial position adjustment, but otherwise it's still close to the previous prediction even with the increasing model spread on days 4 and 5. An upper-level trough situated to the northwest of Teddy is causing about 10-15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the hurricane, and some model analyses suggest that there could be stronger shear in a layer below the level of the upper-level outflow. The deep-layer shear is expected to increase a bit during the next day or so, but this should be offset by a favorable thermodynamic environment, allowing for some intensification during that time. The shear might relax by days 3 and 4, but then the thermodynamic environment becomes a little less conducive for strengthening. In particular, Teddy may move over the cold wake of Hurricane Paulette, and the SHIPS guidance indicates that relatively warm upper-level temperatures could be a negative factor. All that said, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the top end of the guidance envelope, showing Teddy peaking in intensity in a couple of days and then only gradually weakening through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.8N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-17 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 170243 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 33(69) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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