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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-17 10:54:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170854 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Several passive microwave overpasses have revealed that Teddy has developed a 25-nmi-wide closed eye, while GOES-16 infrared satellite data shows significant cooling of the cloud tops surrounding a ragged eye feature. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have increased, thus Teddy's intensity has been increased to 90 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T5.0/90 kt from SAB and a recent UW-CIMSS adjusted-ADT value of T5.7/105 kt. The initial motion estimate based on the microwave satellite fixes is 305/10 kt. As described in previous discussions, the track forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western Atlantic. There is a little less divergence among the models on days 4 and 5 then on previous runs, and this difference remains related timing differences on where and how fast the hurricane begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in about 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory track now that it appears that the models have settled down, and lies close to the consensus models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE. The overall environmental conditions appear to be conducive for Teddy to continue to at least gradually strengthen for the next 36-48 hours. However, with sea-surface temperatures expected to be near 30 deg C in 48-72 hours when the vertical shear is going to be near zero, the intensity forecast at that time could be too low. For now, the official intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, and shows Teddy's intensity leveling off after 36 hours due to the very dry environment that the hurricane will be moving through, which could disrupt the inner-core convective pattern and eye feature. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 18.3N 52.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.5N 53.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 20.9N 54.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 24.3N 58.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 27.6N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 30.7N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 36.0N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-17 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170848 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...TEDDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 52.3W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 52.3 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-09-17 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 170848 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 25(72) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 22(43) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-09-17 10:48:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170848 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.9N 54.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 30.7N 64.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170833 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the outflow of Hurricane Teddy continues to rip across the circulation of Vicky. These very hostile winds aloft are causing Vicky to struggle with maintaining deep convection, which is quite sheared and limited to the northeastern quadrant. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to 38 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt. Since the shear is expected to remain strong, Vicky is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today, a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate entirely by the weekend. The weak storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the west is expected later today, followed by a west-southwest motion after that until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days. The track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 21.9N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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