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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170833 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170833 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 36.7W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 36.7 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the west is forecast later today, followed by a west-southwest motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vicky is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 36.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 36.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 36.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 170831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170831 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sally Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Although the overall convective cloud and rain shield in satellite and radar imagery continues to erode, Tropical Depression Sally is still producing significant rainfall across east-central Alabama and west-central and central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has weakened to a 25-kt depression over southeastern Alabama. Sally will continue to weaken, and fairly rapidly at that, due to increasing friction and loss of convection owing to very hostile westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. Sally will likely degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal system over North Carolina by Friday evening. Sally is moving northeastward or 055/10 kt. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the cyclone moves ahead of a broad deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite, and lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model HCCA. This is the last NHC advisory on Sally. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov KEY MESSAGES: 1. Widespread flooding is expected from central Georgia through southeastern Virginia. Along the central Gulf Coast, most widespread moderate to major river flooding from the historic rainfall event will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated well into next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 31.8N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 32.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 34.0N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 35.1N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart
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