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Tropical Depression Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-17 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171439 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Vicky Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Vicky is feeling the affects of very strong upper-level winds associated with the outflow of Hurricane Teddy. These winds have caused the remaining convection to be stripped well away from the center, and recent ASCAT data indicates that Vicky has weakened to a tropical depression. The ASCAT data support a peak wind speed of 30 kt. Vertical wind shear of 40-50 kt is forecast to continue plaguing Vicky, and the cyclone should continue to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The global models indicate that the circulation will open up into a trough within 36 to 48 hours, and the official forecast calls for dissipation within that time period. Now that Vicky has become a vertically shallow cyclone, it has turned south of due west and is moving 260/12 kt. Vicky or its remnants should turn west-southwestward later today as it is steered by the low-level northeasterly flow. The latest NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 21.4N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 20.4N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 19.6N 43.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Vicky Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-17 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Vicky Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...VICKY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 38.2W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vicky was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 38.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected later today, and that motion should continue through Friday. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Vicky is expected to become a remnant low later today. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate Friday night or early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-09-17 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 171439 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-17 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 171438 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 38.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 38.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 37.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.4N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.6N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-09-17 13:30:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 171130 RRA TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.9N 54.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 30.7N 64.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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