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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-17 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170242 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-17 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170237 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has lacked deep convection for sufficiently long to be deemed a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. Satellite imagery shows a well-developed low cloud swirl that is estimated to be producing winds to 30 kt, primarily based on an earlier ASCAT pass. Karina is moving northwestward at 8 mph, and although a turn toward the west is expected the next day or so, it will remain over 23C waters. This will prevent the redevelopment of significant convection, and the cyclone is expected to gradually spin down until it becomes a trough and dissipates in a couple days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-17 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 125.0W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 125.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward motion is expected on Thursday and Friday, with little change in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the remnant low will likely dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-17 04:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 156 FOPZ11 KNHC 170234 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-17 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170234 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 125.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERIVCE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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