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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 61.9W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 61.9 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 131450 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 83 17(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 12 83(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BERMUDA 64 1 80(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131450 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette this morning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reduces to around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time the peak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraft were only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested by the flight-level values were not reaching the surface at that location. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds in the northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change to the structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the system a few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and is a compromise of those two different peak values measured by the aircraft. Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon. Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C. The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 131449 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 61.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 61.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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