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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 53
2018-10-09 16:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091438 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 43.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 450SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 43.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 43.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.1N 41.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.9N 39.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 31.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 150SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 22.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 18.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-09 13:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 11:56:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 11:56:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 52
2018-10-09 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090857 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Leslie has been steady state overnight. The low-level center is estimated to be on the southern side of a persistent area of deep convection. The satellite intensity estimates are largely unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving southeastward at 11 kt steered by the flow on the southwest side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. This motion, but a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours as the trough pulls away. After that time, another trough is expected to dig southward over the north Atlantic, which should cause Leslie to accelerate east-northeastward. Although the models are in fair agreement for the next few days, they remain in in poor agreement on whether or not the trough will continue to carry Leslie eastward or leave the storm behind around day 5. The GFS and ECMWF have flip flopped, with the GFS now showing Leslie meandering over the east Atlantic by day 5 and the ECMWF moving the system eastward toward Morocco. The ensemble spread remains large in those two global models and there has not been much run-to-run consistency either. The NHC track forecast remains near the various consensus aids, which is usually a good place to be when there is considerable uncertainty like this. Leslie should slowly strengthen during the next few days while it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a more moist environment. These favorable conditions should allow Leslie to become a hurricane once again, likely within a day or two. Weakening is expected to commence this weekend when Leslie is forecast to move over cooler waters and into an atmosphere of stronger shear and drier air, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical by day 5. However, the long range intensity forecast is strongly linked to where Leslie will be, so since the track forecast is uncertain, the intensity prediction is likewise. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 32.2N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 30.8N 43.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 29.2N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 28.1N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 28.4N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 31.2N 33.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 33.5N 23.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 34.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2018-10-09 10:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 090856 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-09 10:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 32.2, -43.9 with movement SSE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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