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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-09 04:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LONG-LIVED LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 32.9, -44.6 with movement SE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 51
2018-10-09 04:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 ...LONG-LIVED LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 44.6W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 44.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower motion toward the southeast or east-southeast is anticipated over the next couple of days, with a turn toward the east-northeast forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could become a hurricane again on Wednesday. Leslie is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 51
2018-10-09 04:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090237 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 42.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 42.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 41.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 35.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 33.5N 24.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 16.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-08 22:48:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 20:48:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 21:22:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 50
2018-10-08 22:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082048 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 GOES-16 data indicate that Leslie has a small central dense overcast with an inner core trying to form on the last few visible images. Convection has also deepened somewhat, and the overall cloud pattern is becoming more symmetric. All signs point to strengthening and the Dvorak estimates are increasing. So for Leslie's 50th advisory, the wind speed is raised to 50 kt, near the CIMSS ADT value. Leslie is moving southeastward at about 12 kt; an unusually fast pace for this direction. The storm is forecast to slow down somewhat and turn toward the south-southeast during the next day or two as the cyclone separates from the mid-latitude flow temporarily and becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. Fortunately the ridge isn't strong enough for Leslie to move westward again, and the models all eject Leslie northeastward because of a deepening trough over the eastern Atlantic. There has been a notable trend southward through 48 hours, and the official forecast follows that idea. The forecast becomes a nightmare at long range, however, with very little agreement on whether Leslie is accelerated ahead of the trough, like the latest FV3GFS, or gets left behind again, like the ECMWF. These differences result in a 1200 mile spread of the historically reliable models by day 5, resulting in a very low confidence forecast. The bulk of the guidance is now indicating that the "left behind" option is becoming more likely, but continuity dictates making forecast changes in smaller chunks. So the official forecast is much slower and farther south at long range, but is well north of the latest model consensus. Further southward adjustments could be required if model trends continue. Interestingly, model guidance is becoming more certain on Leslie becoming a hurricane again as it moves over warmer (but still marginally warm) waters, into a lighter-shear and higher mid-level humidity enviroment. This makes some sense given that the track is shifting southward and Leslie should finally move over a warmer portion of the subtropical Atlantic that it hasn't touched yet. Thus the intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, and the corrected-consensus models even suggest category 2 as a peak intensity is possible. By day 5, increasing shear and cooler waters should weaken Leslie, and it could be undergoing extratropical transition at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 33.8N 45.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 32.5N 44.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 30.6N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 28.9N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 28.2N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 29.5N 37.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 37.0N 17.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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