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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 54
2018-10-09 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092041 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Leslie's appearance on visible imagery has improved through the afternoon, and multiple microwave overpasses show the development of a small mid-level eye. The intensity has been increased to 60 kt based on an average of the most recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Leslie is moving over warmer waters and the wind shear is expected to be low, so additional strengthening is anticipated and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. Given the relatively favorable environment and the recent organization of Leslie's inner-core, it is possible that Leslie could intensify a little faster than currently indicated by the NHC forecast. Beyond day 2, there is particularly low confidence in the intensity forecast since the track of Leslie is highly uncertain, and the NHC forecast essentially follows the intensity consensus. It is likely that the farther south and west Leslie remains, the stronger it will be. Unfortunately the track forecast has not become any clearer. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts still indicate that a range of possibilities exist, from Leslie becoming extratropical and heading toward the extreme northeast Atlantic, to Leslie turning back west in a few days and persisting as a tropical cyclone. No large changes were made to the track forecast at this time, since I see no reason to commit to a new solution at this time. The NHC forecast is close to HCCA at all forecast hours, but confidence is low to say the least. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 30.3N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 29.0N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 28.1N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 29.2N 38.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 32.0N 29.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 33.0N 22.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 31.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-09 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 30.3, -43.0 with movement SSE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 54
2018-10-09 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 ...LESLIE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 43.0W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 43.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the south-southeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower motion and a turn toward the east-northeast or northeast is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the the next couple of days and Leslie will likely become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2018-10-09 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 092040 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 54
2018-10-09 22:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 43.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 480SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 43.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 43.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 42.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.1N 41.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.2N 38.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 29.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 22.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.0N 20.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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