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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-07 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT'S INTENSITY HOLDS STEADY AS IT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 106.9W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 106.9 West. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-07 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-06 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 20:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 21:32:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie's center remains exposed, with limited shower activity displaced more than 110 n mi northeast of the center. Consequently, the system is poised to become a remnant low tonight if organized convection doesn't redevelop near the center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, and is in best agreement with a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and in deference to this morning's scatterometer data which indicated numerous 40-kt winds. Marie should continue to gradually spin down during the 36 hours while moving west-northwestward over 24C sea surface temperatures and through an extremely inhibiting surrounding environment. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should turn westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure Friday. Only a small along-track adjustment was made to the NHC forecast in order to agree more with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 062036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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