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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Marie was located near 22.4, -135.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 31
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 062035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 135.6W ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 135.6 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 062035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 135.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-06 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 20:35:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 21:39:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-06 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 065 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 A compact central dense overcast with cloud tops occasionally cooling to -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of Norbert throughout the day. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 41 kt near the center of storm. However, due to the small size of the cyclone, the highest winds are likely not being sampled. Therefore, the initial intensity is being raised to 45 kt, and this is in good agreement with the latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB. Norbert is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear while over very warm waters for the next couple of days. Despite the positive environmental factors in the near term, model guidance is in poor agreement on the future intensity of Norbert. The spread in the forecast intensity has widened even further today, with most of the global and hi-resolution dynamical models weakening the system over the next few days, while the SHIPS and LGEM guidance favor slow strengthening. Since the SHIPS guidance has been the most accurate for Norbert's intensity thus far, the latest NHC forecast is close to, but just below the SHIPS guidance values through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is expected to become moderate, and there are indications that subsidence will increase over the cyclone. These negative environmental factors should inhibit further intensification, and could cause the cyclone to weaken. The steering currents around Norbert are collapsing, as the mid-level ridge over southern Mexico dissipates in response to Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Model tracks diverge by a few hundred miles in varying directions while the steering flow is weak. The consensus guidance is in between these solutions and shows very little movement for the next 72 h. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone, which would result in a slow west-northwestward to westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 106.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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