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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-10-07 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-07 04:39:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 02:39:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 02:39:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-07 04:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070238 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Norbert's satellite presentation has degraded slightly over the past several hours as its convective cloud tops have warmed compared to earlier today. The system may be feeling the effects of some weak westerly wind shear, as the coldest cloud tops are displaced somewhat to the east of the estimated low-level center position. Regardless, objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB support holding the initial intensity at 45 kt with this advisory. Sea surface temperatures of 29 degrees Celsius and 10 kt or less of deep-layer vertical wind shear should support at least modest strengthening during the next 24 h or so. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates moderate southeasterly wind shear will develop over this small cyclone by Thursday and persist into the upcoming weekend. This should inhibit further intensification and may even cause Norbert to weaken. There is once again a fairly large spread in the intensity guidance, with the global models still struggling to capture this compact system and depicting steady weakening during the next few days. Meanwhile, SHIPS guidance maintains Norbert at tropical storm strength and even shows some gradual strengthening. Since the statistical-dynamical models have performed better with Norbert, the NHC intensity forecast once again trends above the consensus aids and closer to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. The official forecast shows Norbert peaking as a 50-kt tropical storm on Wednesday, then weakening slightly on Thursday and leveling off through the weekend. Norbert is drifting slowly north-northwestward tonight. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea weakens the mid-level ridge that had been steering Norbert. This weak steering environment could lead to some erratic storm motion until the ridge becomes re-established later this week, but the track guidance consensus suggests little movement during the next couple of days. By Friday night, the storm should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward, and the models are in better agreement with regards to this general storm motion at 72 h and beyond. The latest NHC track forecast follows the consensus aids more closely than any individual model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-10-07 04:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 17(22) 10(32) 5(37) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-07 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT'S INTENSITY HOLDS STEADY AS IT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Norbert was located near 14.5, -106.9 with movement NNW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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