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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Norbert was located near 14.4, -106.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 106.6W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or be nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 5(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-06 17:09:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061509 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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