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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-15 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:38:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-15 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150237 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 Josephine continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the northeast of its center, however, there is little evidence of any banding features. A fortuitous ASCAT-A overpass has revealed peak winds of 35-40 kt over the northern semicircle of the storm, and the scatterometer ambiguities along with the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is still closed. Based on the scatterometer data, the initial wind speed has been set at 40 kt. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous forecast. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear that is affecting the cyclone is forecast to increase over the weekend and reach values of around 30 kt on Sunday. This is expected to result in gradual weakening by the latter portion of the weekend, and Josephine is predicted to weaken to a tropical depression in about 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 3-4 days. A plausible alternate scenario that is suggested by some of the global models is for the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure, resulting in dissipation of the tropical cyclone within the next few days. The timely ASCAT data was very helpful in determining Josephine's center location. Based on that and the earlier aircraft fixes, the cyclone continues to move west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of Josephine should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next 24-48 hours. After that time, Josephine should turn northwestward, and then northward as a weakness develops in the ridge over the western Atlantic. By late in the period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest official forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical track models, and is very similar to the previous NHC advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 18.3N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.2N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 20.4N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 21.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.2N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 26.4N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z 33.0N 64.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-15 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOW JOSEPHINE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 14 the center of Josephine was located near 18.3, -57.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 14
2020-08-15 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOW JOSEPHINE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 57.4W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 57.4 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-08-15 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 150236 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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