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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-15 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150832 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The low-level center of Kyle continues to be exposed to the west of the deep convection, as strong westerly shear prevails. Although the satellite appearance is not that impressive, the circulation is well intact as indicated by a recent ASCAT overpass that reveals that the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Kyle is currently moving east-northeast at 18 kt, and away from the U.S. coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with a turn to the east and an increase in forward speed thereafter as the system remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. Only slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 h as the cyclone crosses the warm Gulf Stream waters and interacts with an upper-level trough, while battling increasing westerly shear. The forecast track takes Kyle over much cooler waters starting in about 24 h, and by that time, the system is expected to begin interacting with a frontal boundary to its north. This should initiate an extratropical transition that is expected to be complete by 36 h. It should be noted that both the FSU GFS-based phase space forecast and SHIPS guidance suggest that this transition could be completed sooner than indicated. After transition, the extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 38.7N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kyle (AT2/AL122020)
2020-08-15 10:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Kyle was located near 38.7, -68.0 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kyle Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-15 10:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 68.0W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 68.0 West. Kyle is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the east along with an increase in forward speed is expected early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Kyle is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-15 10:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 68.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 68.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-15 10:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 150832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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